Central banks forecast growth more accurately than inflation, benchmark finds

What happened

The Economics Benchmarks 2026 report found 61.3% of 31 central bank economics departments said their growth forecast errors were roughly in line with the historical average in 2025, while 48.4% said the same for inflation errors. For both variables, errors were more likely to come in lower than the historical average than higher.

Why it matters

The findings suggest central banks have been more reliable at projecting real growth than headline inflation, highlighting which economic variable remains harder to forecast for policymakers.